by Prabesh G. C. 

Nepal faces numerous climatic hazards, making it place highly susceptible to disasters (Karki et al., 2021). Globally, it ranks as the fourth most climate risk-prone country (Eckstein et al., 2018) and is among the top twenty multi-hazard nations (UNDRR, 2019). This highlights the urgent need for comprehensive research and targeted interventions to address the intricate relationship between disaster patterns and ecosystem vulnerability.

Nepal, as a mountainous country, is characterized by its unique geology, diverse geography, high climatic gradients, and extreme altitudinal variations. The sharp altitudinal gradients, combined  with its location in the Central Himalayas—a region marked by young and fragile topography—pose distinct environmental and developmental challenges. Rapid, unplanned urbanization and infrastructure development, such as road construction, have compounded these vulnerabilities. Moreover, the impacts of climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events, have heightened the risks of natural disasters such as floods and landslides. As these extreme events increase and climatic patterns shift, the risks to both communities and ecosystems grow. It is therefore imperative to prioritize research that explores these dynamic interactions and to adopt practices aimed at mitigating disaster risks.

1.    Disasters: A case of landslides and floods

Both landslides and floods are closely related with various metrics of climate change such as frequency and intensity of extreme weather, including altered rainfall and temperature. Such events exacerbate the impact of landslides and floods in combination with deforestation, infrastructure development and encroachment (Bhatt, 2020). The graphs below illustrate the increasing frequency of floods and landslides, along with their associated fatalities, in Nepal over the last decade. 

Fig1: Landslide incidents and lives lost over the past decade in Nepal (NDRRMA, MoHA, 2024).  The data covers a fiscal year starting on July 16 and ending on July 15.

Fig2: Flood incidents and lives lost over the past decade in Nepal (NDRRMA, MoHA,2024). The data covers a fiscal year starting on July 16 and ending on July 15. 

The signs of climate change in Nepal are becoming increasingly evident, characterized by increasing maximum surface-air temperatures, and precipitation patterns, both in amount and frequency. The following graphs illustrate the trends in these climatic changes over the past decade. These extreme weather events highlighting the worsening climatic hazards Nepal faces, contribute to the growing vulnerabilities. 

Fig3: Annual Mean Precipitation in Nepal for the Past Decade. The values are measured in millimeters. (World Bank, 2024)

Fig4: Annual Maximum Surface Air Temperature in Nepal for the Past Decade. Thevalues are measured in °C (World Bank, 2024).

These climatic fluctuations, combined with the reapidly changing cryosphere in the Hindu-Kush Himalayas, are driving climatic hazards across the region. The Himalayas are particularly vulnerable due to accelerated glacier shrinkage, posing significant risks that could impact millions of people in the future. While research on climate change in the Himalayas has intensified in recent years, it remains insufficient given the alarming environmental changes and higher-than-average regional warming (Khadkaet al., 2023).

2.    Land cover change

The changes in land cover, driven by both natural processes and anthropogenic activities such as development and population growth, induce increasing risks of landslides and floods in Nepal (Promper et al., 2014). As the landscape undergoes these alterations, the consequences of soil erosion become increasingly evident. This is validated by the staggering loss of approximately 369 million tons of soil in Nepal each year (Koirala et al., 2019).

Deforestation adds fuel to the fire by reducing the land’s capacity to absorb water, further intensifying the severity of flood events (Bhattacharjee et al., 2017). Given the country's geographical characteristics—steep mountains, fragile tropography and soils, and intense monsoon rains—these factors create an environment for landslides, debris flows, and floods. These conditions underscore the necessity of conducting thorough research on the recurrence of such disasters (Dhakal, 2016). 

Fig5: Change in land cover in between 2000 and 2019 (MoFE, 2022)

3. Urbanization

In Nepal, the rapid urbanization is a new phenomenon. Data suggest that the urbanization rate was 2.9% between 1990 and 2018. This is projected to continue at 2% by 2050, solidifying Nepal's position as one of the fastest-growing urban populations globally(Joshi, 2023). Rapid and often uncontrolled urban expansion, particularly since 2014, has exacerbated various urban challenges. Consequently, the urban environment in Nepal is becoming increasingly fragile due to haphazard urbanization with poor land use plan, and growing climate change induced extreme events (Rahman et al., 2012). Consequently, disasters cause huge economic loss and corrective and/or preventive measures are often costly. 

Fig 6: Urbanization trends in Nepal (Joshi, 2023)

4.Conclusion

In conclusion, Nepal's unique geographic and climatic conditions make it particularly susceptible to natural disasters exacerbated by rapid urbanization and climate change. The interaction of these factors not only threatens human lives and infrastructure but also jeopardizes the country's rich biodiversity. Addressing these challenges calls for an empirical research that delves into the intricate relationships between urban growth, environmental degradation, and disaster risks. The opportunity to address these pressing issues is both urgent and full of promise, paving the way for a future where communities can thrive in harmony with their environment.

Source: EuroNews

5.    References

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Karki, G., Bhatta, B.,Devkota, N. R., Acharya, R. P., & Kunwar, R. M. (2021). Climate changeadaptation (CCA) interventions and indicators in Nepal: Implications forsustainable adaptation. Sustainability, 13(23), 13195. https://doi.org/10.3390/su132313195

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Bhattacharjee, K.,& Behera, B. (2017). Forest cover change and flood hazards in India. Landuse policy, 67, 436-448.

World Bank (2024). Climatechange knowledge portal. Retrieved August 31, 2024, from https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/

Eckstein, D., Hutfils,M. L., & Winges, M. (2018). Global climate risk index 2019. Who suffersmost from extreme weather events, 36.

Rahman, M. S., Islam,B., & Ahmed, B. (2012). An overview on rapid urbanization and induceddisaster risk factors in Bangladesh. World Town Planning Day, 56-64.

Bhatt, R. P. (2020).Consequences of Climate Change Impacts and Implications on Ecosystem andBiodiversity; Impacts of Developmental Projects and Mitigation Strategy inNepal.